inflation rate steadily declined from 3.3% in 2012 to a negative value of -0.1%, which
indicates a significant decline in consumer demand in Italy.
Table 3 The dynamics of macroeconomic indicators in Italy
The Indicator
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Budeget deficit, % of GDP
3,7
2,9
2,9
3,0
2,7
2,4
Government debt, % of GDP 116,5
123,3
129,0
131,8
132,1
132,6
Consumer price index, %
2,9
3,3
1,2
0,2
0,1
-0,1
Source: based on [3]
To examine the impact of financial integration on economic development and
the financial health of Italy, two regression models were set up based on the ECB's
one-year statistical data for the period of 2003-2016. The first model examines the
impact of government debt (X1), budget deficit (X2), harmonized index of consumer
prices (Х3) and the ECB fixed rate on the main refinancing operations (Х4) on GDP
per capita (Y). Regression model received is: Y = 1,573 X
1
- 0,266 Х
2
- 0,21 Х
3
- 1,525
Х
4.
The model is significant: R
2
= 0.871; statistical significance is confirmed by X
1
and
X
4
(coefficients of t-statistic X
1
and X
4
exceed the t-criterion); determination
coefficients are statistically significant and the regression equation is statistically
reliable (F-statistics of the Fisher distribution (13.53) is greater than the F-criterion
(3.84); the probability of zero values of the coefficients X
1
and X
4
is 1%; X
2
and X
3
are
10%; no autocorrelation (Darbin-Watson coefficient is 1.168).
Regression analysis shows a statistically significant relationship between GDP
per capita and selected independent variables. As a result, government debt has a direct
impact on GDP per capita. The second most powerful influence is the ECB's interest
rate, but dependence in reverse. If the rate increases, GDP per capita will decrease,
which is logical, since the increase in the cost of lending leads to a reduction in the
money supply in the country. At present, the ECB is pursuing a quantitative easing
policy, gradually reducing its interest rate to stimulate the growth of the European
economy and inflation, which still does not reach the acceptable level for developed
economies of 2%. Budget deficits and inflation rates have a reverse, but a weakly
significant impact on the variable, since the Student's ratios do not exceed the criterion.
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